I had another essay written for this week, but in light of the COVID-19 hoopla (I received six emails today from vendors giving their take on the virus), I decided to write about risk. .
It seems that a majority of people have grave concerns over risks that have a slight chance of happening while ignoring those risks that have a greater likelihood of occurring.
For example, the chances of anyone reading this missive contracting COVID-19 are actually quite small, while the chances are 100% that everyone reading this will die. And yet the odds are a majority of readers have taken at least some precautions against the virus while at least a few have not addressed their ultimate mortality. Addressing ultimate mortality means not only life insurance, but also wills, healthcare directives, and powers of attorney.
It is not my intention to downplay the seriousness of the situation; rational and appropriate measures should absolutely be taken. But according to the World Health Organization, COVID-19 is relatively mild in about 80% of cases. That's good news, but not for those in the 20% minority. And if the 20% of severe cases is a large enough group, it could adversely affect the health care delivery system which would be bad news for all of us.
Just as it was after 9/11, it is important to keep things in their proper perspective. I'm not sure if Governor Murphy has seen this, but even if I'm living in the same household with a confirmed COVID-19 case, as long as I am not sick and have no symptoms of fever, cough or difficulty breathing, I am at low risk of contracting the virus, according to the New Jersey Department of Health.
It's important to understand that this is a fluid situation and changes constantly. Also, it is absolutely subject to confirmation bias, which I wrote about two weeks ago. So be safe, be sane, and if you'd like to call to discuss this, make sure you wash your hands before doing so. :)